I’m not convinced decoupling is really more a danger than a blessing. A tightly integrated global economy is one that suffers financial catastrophes through contagion. The last time the world become economically interdependent we got the roaring 20s followed by the Great Depression. Certainly, the Great Recession was a warning shot across our bow. My fear is that it’s not going to happen.

The problem is US$ dominance, but it’s also the source of global efficiency. At some point, these two forces are going to clash. In the meantime, US$ assets are going to be the most valuable and safest things to own. That is going to look good from the heights of narrow US interests, but not good for the political stability of the rest of the world.