Good exploration of game theory and the chicken game, but Trump’s success might be more easily explained by the fact that in trade negotiations and military confrontations, he holds the better hand and knows it. He can play this hand because he doesn’t care about accepted norms of behavior, but only about gaining on his position.
He also uses typical negotiating tactics of asking for something outrageous that then gets negotiated down to what he originally wanted. He plays this rather well because his initial demands do sound crazy.
Scott Adams has a far better handle on this than the anti-Trumpers.